Epidemics and Underlying Factors of Multiple-peak Pattern on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou

主讲人：王开发 西南大学教授

时间：2019年6月27日10：00

地点：3号楼332室

举办单位：数理学院

主讲人介绍：王开发，西南大学教授、博士、硕士生导师，美国《Mathematical  Review》评论员、中国生物数学学会理事、中国医药数学会常务理事、重庆市数学学会常务理事、《生物数学学报》常务编委、国家自然科学基金通讯评议专家。2007年毕业于西南大学，2008-2009年在美国亚利桑那州立大学数学系访问一年。主要从事生物数学、生物统计与计算医学方面的研究，在病毒感染动力学机理、临床数据分析和传染病建模方面积累了较丰富的经验。主持国家自然科学基金4项（在研1项）、重庆市自然科学基金2项；在国内外期刊上发表论文80余篇，其中第一/通讯作者SCI收录30余篇、Faculty  of  1000医学推荐收录1篇；获批国家发明专利2项（第二完成人）；参编专著1本；第一完成人获军队科技进步三等奖1项。曾获军队优秀专业技术人才三类岗位津贴、中国人民解放军院校育才奖银奖。  

内容介绍：Background: Several outbreaks of severe hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in East  Asia and Southwest Asia in recent years have had a serious impact on the  countries. However, the factors that contribute to annual multiple-peak pattern  of HFMD outbreaks, and how and when do these factors play the decisive role in  the HFMD transmission is still unclear. Methods: Based on the surveillance data  of HFMD between 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 in Wenzhou, China, the daily  model-free basic reproduction number and its annual average were first estimated  by incorporating incubation and infection information, then the annual  model-based basic reproduction number was computed by the proposed kinetic  model, and finally the potential impact factors of multiple-peak pattern are  assessed through the global and time-varying sensitivity analyses. Results: All  annual model-based and model-free basic reproduction numbers were significantly  higher than one. The school opening both in the spring and fall semester,  meteorological effect in the spring semester, and the interactions among them  were strongly correlated with the annual model-based basic reproduction number,  which were the main underlying factors on the annual multiple-peak pattern of  HFMD outbreaks. Conclusions: School opening was primarily responsible for peaks  of HFMD outbreaks and meteorological factors in the spring semester should also  be highly concerned. The optimum timing for social distance implementation is at  the beginning of every school semester and health education focusing on personal  hygiene and good sanitation should be highlighted in the spring semester.