主讲人：蔡泳玫 宁波诺丁汉大学助理教授
时间：2019年11月10日11：00
地点：10号楼327
举办单位：数理学院
主讲人介绍：蔡泳玫，宁波诺丁汉大学数学科学系助理教授，主要从事生物和种群系统的随机建模。近两年内在“Applied Mathematical Modelling, Nonlinear Dynamics等期刊发表论文5篇。
内容介绍：This talk first constructs a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model of a fjord nutrient, based on the hydrographic and chemical data collected from the 1991 field campaign implemented in Loch Linnhe. Stochastic modelling approach is able to account for the process noise in the nutrient data. The SDE model is first extended from a deterministic nutrient model by the parameter perturbation scheme. To capture the annual variations in the sea-loch nutrient, the SDE model is refined by considering the complex physical and biological processes that make big effects on the nutrient dynamics. The model is parameterised using the least squares approach. The goodness of fit of the SDE model is assessed by comparing the distribution graphs and by performing statistical tests. The existence of the environmental-type process noise in the nutrient data is illustrated by a residual analysis for the data. Finally, a simulation study is carried out to identify the accuracy of the parameter estimation frameworks.